Riba:
- Ikon yin bayanin ra'ayoyi na zahiri kamar mitar asara, tsananin lalacewa da wadatar ƙima tare da hankali na wucin gadi da shirya daftarin bincike
- Ikon gwada fitar da samfurin farashi, ingancin bayanai da kuma zato a kan lissafin kuɗi mai zaman kansa da ka'idodin aiki
- Ability to understand that final tariff and technical provision decisions are the responsibility of competent actuaries and that artificial intelligence is only a support tool
Farashin inshora ba daidaituwa ba ne; Ana lissafta shi da lissafi. Actuary (filin gwaninta a cikin inshora wanda ke auna haɗari tare da yuwuwar yuwuwar da ƙididdiga da kuma kafa ma'auni na ƙima, samarwa da ɗaukar hoto) ya amsa tambayar "menene wannan haɗarin zai kashe mu a matsakaici kuma ta yaya za mu iya rufe shi da ƙimar kuɗi mai kyau?" Mai aiki (ƙwararren gwani wanda ya yi wannan lissafin kuma yana da alhakin doka) ya haɗu da bayanan lalacewa, abubuwan da suka faru da zato da kuma ƙayyade jadawalin kuɗin fito (ma'auni na farashi) da tanadin fasaha (kuɗin da aka keɓe don da'awar gaba). Hankali na wucin gadi (software wanda ke koyon tsari daga bayanai kuma yana samar da rubutu, kwatanci, da fassarorin) mataimaki ne mai ƙarfi a cikin wannan babban aikin nazari: bayyana ra'ayoyi, taƙaita bayanai, ƙirƙira ƙira, lambar ba da shawara da dabara. Amma yanke shawara na zahiri yana ɗaukar sa hannu da nauyi; Hankalin wucin gadi ba zai iya yin wannan sa hannun ba. A cikin wannan rukunin, zaku koyi yadda ake yin bayani da yin nazari akan mahimman ra'ayoyi na zahiri tare da hankali na wucin gadi da yadda ake gwada fitarwa akan ƙididdiga masu zaman kansu da ƙa'idodin aiki.
Mahimman ra'ayi: Mita, ƙarfi da wadatar ƙima
Hanyoyi guda uku sune kashin bayan farashi:
- Mitar da'awar: Adadin da'awar kowace manufa (ko naúrar) a cikin ƙayyadaddun lokaci. Misali, idan akwai da'awar 45 a kowace shekara a cikin manufofin inshorar mota 1,000, mitar ita ce 0.045 (watau 4.5%).
- Tsananin lalacewa: Matsakaicin adadin da aka biya akan kowane da'awar. Idan an biya jimillar 3,150,000 TL don diyya 45 a cikin wannan fayil ɗin, tsananin shine 70,000 TL.
- Lalacewar da ake tsammani (farashin haɗari): Mita × tsanani. A cikin misali, 0.045 × 70,000 = 3,150 TL. Wannan ita ce tsantsar asarar asarar da ake tsammanin ta kowace manufa; Ana samun babban ƙima lokacin da aka ƙara kashe kuɗi, kwamitocin da ribar riba.
- Isar da ƙimar ƙima: Ko kuɗin da aka tattara ya isa don biyan diyya da kashe kuɗi da ake tsammani. Rashin isashen kari yana sanya kamfani cikin asara; Matsakaicin ƙima yana haifar da farashi mara gasa da rashin adalci.
AI yana da amfani sosai wajen bayyana waɗannan ra'ayoyin, cire mitar / taƙaitaccen taƙaitaccen bayani daga saitin bayanai, da bayyana matakan bincike. Koyaya, dole ne koyaushe ku sake ƙididdige sakamakon lambobi.
Tukwici: Samun hankali na wucin gadi yana bayyana ra'ayi na zahiri "tare da misalin lambobi, kamar dai bayyana shi ga ɗalibin aji na 10" yana da matukar amfani duka a cikin horarwar ƙungiya da kuma bayyana shi ga abokin ciniki. Amma duba lambar: har ma da yawa samfurin na iya samun kuskure.
Inda hankali na wucin gadi ya tsaya a zahiri
Layin ja a cikin wasan kwaikwayo a bayyane yake: jadawalin kuɗin fito na ƙarshe, samar da fasaha da yanke shawara mai ƙima shine alhakin ƙwararren mai aiki. AI yana taimakawa tare da ayyuka masu zuwa: bayanin ra'ayi, taƙaitaccen bayani, ƙayyadaddun bincike, ƙirar ƙira/shawarar lamba, yin rubutun da aka samu ana iya karantawa. Ba za ta iya yin magana ta ƙarshe a cikin batutuwa masu zuwa ba: amincewa da jadawalin kuɗin fito, ayyana isashen tanadi, karɓar zato a matsayin ƙarshe. Domin waɗannan yanke shawara kai tsaye suna shafar lafiyar kuɗi na kamfani da haƙƙin abokin ciniki na farashi mai kyau kuma suna ƙarƙashin doka (SEDDK - Inshorar Inshorar Kuɗi da Dokokin fensho masu zaman kansu da ka'idojin Hukumar Kulawa).
Hankali: Ba za a taɓa buga jadawalin kuɗin fito ko ƙimar da aka ba da shawara ta hanyar fasaha ta wucin gadi ba tare da gwaji mai zaman kansa na ingancin bayanai da zato. Zaton da ba daidai ba (misali watsi da tasirin hauhawar farashin kaya) na iya sanya dukkan fayil ɗin cikin hanyar cutarwa.
Mataki-mataki: Daftarin bincike mai goyan bayan AI
- A ɓoye suna kuma gano bayanai. Babu bayanan sirri; tara lambobi kawai. Ƙayyade lokaci, fayil da nau'in lamuni.
- Bayyana ra'ayi da hanya. Tambayi AI don fayyace matakan bincike na mitar/ƙarfi.
- Ingancin bayanan tambaya. Shin akwai wani tasiri na ɓacewar bayanan, abubuwan da suka wuce, rashin daidaituwa na lokaci, IBNR (da'awar ba a ba da rahoton ba tukuna)?
- Rubuta zato a sarari. A kan wane zato ne hauhawar farashin kaya, yanayin, abubuwan ci gaba suka dogara?
- Yi lissafin sakamakon da kansa. Maimaita mita, ƙarfi da ƙimar haɗari tare da maƙunsar bayanan ku.
- Gwada kuma tabbatar da ƙa'idar aiki. ƙwararren ɗan wasan kwaikwayo yana kimantawa da alama dangane da cancantar ƙima, daidaito da doka.
uku mini lokuta
Case 1 - Kama zato mara kyau. Wani mataimakiyar wasan kwaikwayo ya karɓi daftarin bincike daga hankali na wucin gadi don jadawalin inshorar mota. Leken asiri na wucin gadi ya ɗauki matsakaicin girman lalacewa na shekaru 3 da suka gabata a matsayin 62,000 TL kuma ya ƙididdige ƙimar haɗarin. Mai aikin ya fahimci cewa ba a daidaita tashin hankalin ba don hauhawar farashin kayayyaki don gabatar da ƙimar: tare da farashin gyaran abin hawa na yanzu, tashin hankalin ya kasance ~ $ 89,000. Wannan gyara ya ƙaru ƙimar haɗari da 43%. Idan ba tare da kulawa mai zaman kansa ba, jadawalin kuɗin fito ba zai isa sosai ba.
Case na 2 - Karya daga waje. Jimlar lalacewa 500 a cikin fayil ɗaya ya zama 40,000,000 TL; amma 22,000,000 TL na wannan ya kasance daga babbar barnar gobara guda ɗaya. Leken asiri na wucin gadi ya taƙaita matsakaicin tashin hankali kamar 80,000 TL. Mai wasan kwaikwayo ya kimanta wannan babbar barnar guda ɗaya (saboda ba ta sake faruwa kowace shekara); Matsakaicin lalacewa "na al'ada" shine ~ 36,000 TL. Rarraba abin da ya wuce ya sa jadawalin kuɗin fito ya zama gaskiya.
Shari'a 3 - Tabbatar da Adalci. A cikin aikin farashin inshora na kiwon lafiya, bayanan wucin gadi yana ba da haɓaka mai girma ga wani rukunin shekaru. Mai wasan kwaikwayo ya gano cewa shawarar ta zo ne kawai daga ƙaramin ƙarami da hayaniya (ƙananan adadin da'awar); Ba a dogara da kididdiga ba. Bugu da ƙari, ya saba wa ƙa'idar farashin farashi da doka ta buƙata. Mai wasan kwaikwayo ya fara yin lissafin dogaro tare da ƙarin bayanai masu yawa sannan ya yanke shawara.
Hanyoyi huɗu masu kwafi
1) Bayanin ra'ayi (don horarwa / abokin ciniki):
Yi aiki kamar malami mai koyarwa. Bayyana ra'ayoyin "mitar asarar", "ƙananan lalacewa" da "ƙaddarar haɗari" mataki-mataki tare da misalan lamba guda ɗaya a jere (misali manufofin 1,000, da'awar 45, 3,150,000 TL jimlar biyan kuɗi). Nuna dabarar da sakamakon matsakaici a kowane mataki. Yi amfani da harshe mai sauƙi da fahimta.
2) Nazari daftarin kwarangwal:
Abubuwan da ke biyowa suna bayyana matakan bincike mai tsanani don tattara bayanan da'awar (ba tare da bayanan sirri): [lokaci, adadin manufofi, adadin da'awar, jimlar biyan kuɗi] A kowane mataki: ƙayyade abin da aka ƙididdigewa, abin da ake buƙatar zato, menene hadarin ingancin bayanai ya kasance (bacewar bayanai, masu fita, IBNR, hauhawar farashin kaya). Zan sake kirga sakamakon lambobi; ka saita hanya.
3) ingancin bayanai da mai tambaya:
Yi la'akari da daftarin daftarin aiki mai zuwa daga mahangar babban jigo:[manna daftarin aiki] Tambayi: An daidaita tashin hankali don hauhawar farashin kaya? An cire abubuwan waje? Shin samfurin abin dogara ne? An yi la'akari da IBNR? Menene ra'ayin da ake tsammani? Lissafta kowane rauni a ƙarƙashin "RISK" tare da shawarwarin gyarawa.
4) Sauƙaƙe rubutun sakamako:
Mayar da tabbataccen sakamakon bincike mai zuwa zuwa taƙaitaccen taƙaitaccen zartarwa ga manajan da ba mai aiki ba: [sakamakon manna]Kada a canza lambobi, ƙara sabbin lambobi. A bayyane yake bayyana rashin tabbas da zato. Ƙara bayanin kula: "Shawarar jadawalin kuɗin fito na ƙarshe yana ƙarƙashin amincewar ƙwararren mai aiki."
Rauni mai ƙarfi / Ƙarfi mai ƙarfi
Rarrauna: "Kididdige ƙimar inshorar mota tare da wannan bayanan kuma rubuta jadawalin kuɗin fito."
Matsala: Tariff kai tsaye (yankin ja) da ake nema; babu zato, babu ingancin bayanai kuma babu inganci. Samfurin ya dace da ƙimar da ba za a iya dogaro da shi ba daga bayanan hayaniya.
Ƙarfafa: "Daftarin matakan bincike na mita-tsari; ƙayyade zato da haɗarin ingancin bayanai a kowane mataki. Zan lissafta sakamakon lambobi. Kada ku yanke shawarar jadawalin kuɗin fito."
Me yasa yake da kyau: AI ya kafa hanyar, mai aiki yana kiyaye lissafin da yanke shawara; zato ya zama bayyane.
kwatanta jadawalin
mataki
AI rawar
Aiki rawar
Hadarin
Bayanin ra'ayi
Ya bayyana, misalai
Yana tabbatar da daidaito
misali mara kyau
Takaitaccen bayani
tarawa
Yana duba tushen
Karyata ta wuce gona da iri
Jerin zato
Ya ba da shawarar
karba/ ƙi
Rasa / zato mara daidai
Lissafin ƙimar haɗari
daftarin tsari
Asusun masu zaman kansu
Kuskuren asusu
Shawarar jadawalin kuɗin fito/tallafi
-
Yanke shawara da alamu
Rashin wadatar kuɗi
Kuskuren gama gari
- Samun adadin basirar wucin gadi kai tsaye. Samfurin na iya ma sa haɓakawa / ƙari ba daidai ba; sake kirga kowane sakamako.
- Tsallake hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da gyaran gyare-gyare. Kafa jadawalin kuɗin fito ba tare da kawo tashin hankali a baya ba zai lalata fayil ɗin.
- Haɗuwa da waje tare da ma'ana. Babban lalacewa ɗaya yana ɓatar da duka jadawalin kuɗin fito; Yi kimanta daban.
- Dogaro da ƙananan samfura. Matsakaicin daga ƙananan adadin lalacewa ba shi da tabbas; Ana buƙatar lissafin cancanta.
- Yin watsi da adalci. Ya sabawa doka a ba da karin girma ga ƙungiya bisa hayaniyar ƙididdiga.
a takaice
A cikin aikin aiki, hankali na wucin gadi yana bayyana ra'ayoyi, taƙaita bayanai, ƙaddamar da bincike da ba da shawara; amma baya yanke shawara akan jadawalin kuɗin fito, samarwa da wadatar kuɗi. Yi amfani da ra'ayoyin mitar, ƙarfi da ƙimar haɗari daidai; ingancin bayanan tambaya (fiye, IBNR, hauhawar farashin kaya, amincin samfurin); lissafta kowane lamba da kansa; Rubuta zato a sarari. Hukuncin ƙarshe shine alhakin ƙwararren ɗan wasan kwaikwayo kuma yana ƙarƙashin ƙa'idodin SEDDK.
Aikin aikace-aikace
Ƙirƙirar taƙaitaccen mita da tsanani tare da basirar wucin gadi daga saitin bayanan lalacewa da kuke da shi (don dalilai na gwaji, tara). Sa'an nan kuma yi wannan lissafin da kanka a cikin ma'auni. A lura da bambanci tsakanin sakamakon biyu; Idan akwai bambanci, nemo dalilin (kumburi, wuce gona da iri, ba daidai ba). Yi la'akari da zato naku tare da gaggawa #3 kuma gano aƙalla haɗarin ingancin bayanai guda biyu.
jerin abubuwan dubawa
- [ ] Na yi amfani da tari kawai, bayanan da ba na sirri ba.
- [ ] Na sake ƙididdige mitar, ƙarfi da ƙimar haɗari da kaina.
- [ ] Na yi amfani da hauhawar farashin kaya/gyaran yanayin.
- [ ] Na kimanta abubuwan waje daban.
- [ ] Na tambayi amincin samfurin.
- [ ] Na rubuta zato a sarari.
- [ ] Na bar jadawalin kuɗin fito/shawarar tanadi na ƙarshe zuwa ga ingantacciyar amincewar aiki.