Riba:
- Ikon kwatanta manyan hanyoyin bayanan tattalin arziki (TURKSTAT, CBRT EVDS, IMF WEO, Bankin Duniya, Eurostat, FRED) bisa manufa, iyaka, sabunta mita da aminci kuma zaɓi tushen da ya dace.
- Ikon yin amfani da hankali na wucin gadi don gano tushen bayanai, serial code/madaidaicin bayanin da zazzage tsarar lambar, da tabbatar da kowane sakamako tare da tushen hukuma.
- Ikon ganin yadda sigar (bita), shekara ta tushe, raka'a da bambance-bambancen ma'ana suna rushe bincike da samun al'ada ta tabbatar da metadata.
Kowane bincike na tattalin arziki yana farawa da bayanai, kuma ingancin bincike ba zai taba wuce ingancin bayanan ba. Ka'idar "datti a ciki, datti" yana aiki marar iyaka a cikin tattalin arziki: har ma mafi kyawun samfurin, bisa tushen kuskure, ma'anar kuskure, ko lokacin kuskure, kuskure ne. A cikin wannan rukunin, za mu yi amfani da hankali na wucin gadi don nemo bayanan da suka dace, daidaita lambobin serial da rubuta lambar zazzagewa; Amma wata doka ta zinare ɗaya ba za ta canza ba: Adadin ya fito ne daga tushen farko na hukuma, ba daga hankali na wucin gadi ba. AI na iya nuna muku hanyar zuwa tushen; kuna samun bayanan da kanta daga wannan tushen.
Bari mu san manyan kafofin
Komfas na masanin tattalin arziki ya haɗa da albarkatu masu zuwa. Manufar, iyaka da sabunta kari na kowanne ya bambanta.
TURKSTAT (Cibiyar Kididdiga ta Turkiyya). Hukumar kididdiga ta Turkiyya. Haɓakawa (CPI/PPI), GDP, ma'aikata, kasuwancin waje, samar da masana'antu, yawan jama'a. Wannan ita ce tushen farko na alkaluma na musamman ga Turkiyya.
CBRT EVDS (Tsarin Rarraba Bayanan Lantarki). Data portal na babban bankin kasa. Adadin musanya, riba, samar da kuɗi, ma'auni na biyan kuɗi, ma'auni na yanzu, ajiyar kuɗi, binciken tsammanin. Tasha ta farko don bayanan kuɗi da kuɗi.
Asusun Ba da Lamuni na Duniya (IMF). Musamman ma bayanai na WEO (Tattalin Arzikin Duniya): ƙetare GDP kwatankwacin GDP, hauhawar farashin kaya, bashi, ma'auni na asusun yanzu da tsinkaye. Mafi dacewa don kwatanta kasa da kasa; Amma hasashe hasashe ne, ba zato ba tsammani.
Bankin Duniya (Bankin Duniya - WDI). Manufofin Ci gaban Duniya: ci gaba, talauci, ilimi, kiwon lafiya, alamun abubuwan more rayuwa; dogon jerin tarihi da kwatancen ƙasa.
Eurostat. Ofishin kididdiga na Tarayyar Turai; Bayanai masu jituwa (mai kwatankwacin) don ƙasashen EU. Ana amfani da jeri kamar HICP (daidaituwar hauhawar farashin kaya) a cikin ƙididdigar EU.
FRED (Bayanan Tattalin Arzikin Tarayyar Tarayya). Babban jerin abubuwan St. Louis Fed; Yana ba da damar shiga cikin sauri da shirye-shirye (API) don bayanan Amurka da na duniya macro-kudi.
OECD. Alamun kwatankwacin, manyan alamomi, yawan aiki da jerin jindadi don ci gaban tattalin arziƙin.
Tukwici: Amsar tambayar "madaidaicin tushe" ya dogara da manufar. TURKSTAT don hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a hukumance na Turkiyya; IMF/Bankin Duniya don kwatanta Turkiyya da kasashe 30; FRED don sha'awar Amurka. Ɗaukar alamar alama ɗaya daga tushen kuskure kuskure ne na shiru.
Tushen kuskuren shiru: bita, shekarar tushe, naúrar, kwatance
Kurakurai mafi haɗari a cikin bayanan tattalin arziki ba su da surutu. Ku sani guda hudu:
- Bita (version). Yawancin alamomi (GDP, ma'auni na biyan kuɗi) ana bitar watanni bayan an fara sanar da su. Adadin "na wucin gadi" a yau, adadi na "ƙarshe" bayan watanni uku zai bambanta. Sanin wane nau'in na (version) kuke amfani da shi.
- Shekarar tushe. An kafa fihirisa bisa tushen shekara (=100). Ba daidai ba ne a kwatanta jerin biyu kai tsaye tare da shekaru tushe daban-daban.
- Naúrar Miliyan ko biliyan, TL ko dala, farashin yanzu ko tsayayyen farashi? Rudani na raka'a shine mafi yawan kuskuren bincike.
- Ma'anar / iyaka. Menene ma'anar "rashin aikin yi"? Wadanne abubuwa ne "cikar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki" ke ware? Siri biyu masu suna iri ɗaya na iya auna abubuwa daban-daban.
Tsanaki: Idan adadi na nuni ɗaya daga tushe guda biyu bai dace ba, tunaninka na farko bai kamata ya zama "wani yana ƙarya" amma "akwai bambanci a ma'anar / tushe / girman / bita". Daidaita metadata (kamar ambaton bayanai) da farko.
Mataki-mataki: Tarin bayanai masu ƙarfin AI
- Bayyana bukatar. Wanne mai nuna alama, wace ƙasa/lardi, wane lokaci, wane mitar (wata-wata/kwata-shekara/shekara-shekara), wace ma'anar?
- Zaɓi tushe. Bayyana maƙasudin ga AI kuma bayar da shawarar tushen tushen da ya dace da cikakken sunan jerin.
- Tabbatar da metadata. Tabbatar da naúrar, shekara ta tushe, bayanin da sabunta kwanan watan jerin da aka zaɓa akan shafin hukuma.
- Ƙirƙirar lambar zazzagewa. Ga waɗanda ke da API, kamar FRED/Bankin Duniya, rubuta lambar Python zuwa AI; Cire matakan zazzagewar don TURKSTAT/EVDS.
- Dubawa na farko. Bayan bayanan sun zo, duba adadin layuka/ginshiƙai, ƙimar da suka ɓace, masu fita da kewayon kwanan wata.
- Tabbatar da tushe. Kwatanta aƙalla ƴan abubuwan lura tare da littafin hukuma; Ya dace daidai?
uku mini lokuta
Case 1 - Tushen tarkon shekara. Wani manazarci ya sami fihirisar samar da masana'antu daga bincike daban-daban guda biyu; daya ya dogara ne akan 2015=100 ɗayan kuma ya dogara akan 2021=100. "Haɗa waɗannan," in ji shi ga basirar wucin gadi. Idan ya tsallake duban metadata, zai sanya fihirisa gefe da gefe ya ga tsallen karya. Ya kama bambance-bambancen tushe a matakin sarrafawa, ya mai da su biyun su zama tushen gama gari sannan ya haɗa su. Billa karya ta tafi.
Case 2 - Fitar API da aka kera. Wani mai bincike ya ce wa basirar wucin gadi, "Zana GDP na Turkiye ga kowane mutum daga bankin duniya"; AI ta dawo da lambar da tebur na lambobi azaman "samfurin fitarwa". Mai binciken bai yi amfani da tebur ba; kawai gudanar da lambar kuma ya debo bayanan daga ainihin API. Daga nan sai ya gane cewa lambobin da aka rubuta a matsayin "misali" sun kasance a haƙiƙanin kashi 10-15 cikin ɗari. Kayan aiki na lamba, ba lamba ba; Wannan shine daidai hali.
Case 3 - Bambancin Bita. A cikin wata sanarwa da aka buga watanni shida da suka gabata, wata cibiya ta rubuta cewa ci gaban kwata-kwata ya kai kashi 4.0; A cikin bayanan TÜİK na yanzu, kwata iri ɗaya an sake bita zuwa kashi 3.5. A cikin sabon rahoton, manazarcin ya bayyana a cikin ƙagaggen sigar da ya yi amfani da shi tare da bayyana bambanci tsakanin alkalumman biyu tare da gyarawa. Bayyana gaskiya ta kiyaye gaskiya.
Teburin zaɓi na tushen
Manufar
Dace tushen asali
Hankali
Farashin farashin Turkiyya (CPI/PPI)
TURKSTAT
Shekarar tushe, bambancin ainihin/kanun labarai
Darajar musayar, riba, ma'auni na yanzu, tanadi
Farashin CBRT
Bita, jerin ma'anar
GDP/kwatancin hauhawar farashin kaya tsakanin ƙasashe
IMF WEO
Hasashen ≠ ganewa
Ci gaba / dogon jerin tarihi
Bankin Duniya WDI
Rufewa, bacewar shekaru
EU sun daidaita alamomi
Eurostat
Bayanin HICP
US/global macrofinance, API
FRED
Matsayin daidaitawa na yanayi
Samfura huɗu masu kwafi
1) Tushen asali da daidaitawa:
Ina bukatan mai nuna alama: [mai nuna alama, ƙasa/lardi, lokaci, mita, kwatance]. Ba da shawarar mafi dacewa tushen asalin hukuma da cikakken suna don wannan. Jera abubuwan da nake buƙata don tabbatarwa game da naúrar, shekarar tushe, da bayanin jerin. Kada ku ba da lambobi; Kawai gaya mani inda kuma yadda zan saya.
2) FRED/Bankin Duniya lambar zazzagewa:
Rubuta lamba a Python tare da [FRED/Bankin Duniya] API wanda ke zazzage jerin masu zuwa: [jerin lambar/suna], [kwanan kwanan wata]. Lambar tana ɗaukar bayanan cikin pandasDataFrame, tana buga layuka 5 na farko/na ƙarshe da adadin ƙimar da suka ɓace. Kada ku ba ni misali/saddarar da aka yi; kawai ba da lambar aiki.
3) Jerin ingantattun metadata:
Zan yi amfani da jerin masu zuwa: [jeri]. Ƙirƙirar lissafin bayanan metadata da kuke buƙatar tabbatarwa kafin amfani: ƙarar, shekara ta tushe, yanayin daidaita yanayin yanayi, ma'anar/ iyaka, sabunta kwanan wata, matsayin bita. Ga kowane abu, rubuta "abin da kuma inda za a tabbatar" a cikin jumla ɗaya.
4) Abubuwa biyu da ba su dace ba:
Na sami nuni iri ɗaya daga tushe guda biyu kuma lambobin sun bambanta: Tushen A: [daraja, tambari]. Tushen B: [daraja, bugawa]. Yi lissafin dalilan da ba su da laifi na wannan bambance-bambance (ma'anar, tushe, iyaka, daidaita yanayin yanayi, bita, kuɗi) kuma gaya mani yadda zan bincika kowane. Kada ku ce "daya ba daidai ba"; Da farko ka taimake ni in bayyana sabanin.
Rauni mai ƙarfi / Ƙarfi mai ƙarfi
Rawanin faɗakarwa:
Bani bayanan ci gaban Turkiyya na shekaru 10 da suka gabata.
AI yana fitar da hoto daga ƙwaƙwalwar ajiyarsa, mai yuwuwa tsohon kuma an ƙirƙira wani yanki; Babu tushe ko tambari.
Ƙarfi mai ƙarfi:
Zan yi amfani da 2014-2023 Turkiye ci gaban ainihin GDP na shekara-shekara. Faɗa mini tushen farko na wannan (TURKSTAT) da cikakken sunan jerin; gaya mani idan jerin ƙayyadaddun farashi ne da kuma inda zan duba don tabbatar da shekara ta tushe. Hakanan ba da matakai/lambobi don zazzage wannan bayanan. Kada ku samar da lambobin da kansu.
Kuskuren gama gari
- Kuskure teburin "samfurin fitarwa" na hankali na wucin gadi don ainihin bayanai. Ana iya ƙirƙira waɗannan lambobin; kawai amfani da code / jagora.
- Kwatanta jeri biyu ba tare da daidaita metadata ba. Bambanci a tushe/raka'a/ma'anar yana haifar da sakamako mai ban tsoro.
- Kuskure hasashe na gaskiya. Adadin shekara mai zuwa a cikin IMF WEO kiyasi ne.
- Yin watsi da bita. Ba bayyana wace sigar da kuke amfani da ita ba.
- Rashin daidaituwa akai-akai. Haɗa jerin kowane wata tare da jerin kwata ba tare da gyara ba.
- Ba a ambaci tushen a cikin bayanan kafa ba. Hoton da ba a iya gano shi ba adadi ne wanda ba zai iya tsayawa ba.
A takaice
Ƙarfin bincike shine ikon bayanai. Yi amfani da AI don nemo tushen da ya dace, daidaita jerin kuma rubuta lambar zazzagewa; amma koyaushe kuna samun adadi daga tushen hukuma na farko (TURKSTAT, EVDS, IMF, Bankin Duniya, Eurostat, FRED). A ware tushen kuskuren shiru kamar bita, shekara ta tushe, girma, da kwatance ta hanyar daidaita metadata. Idan tushen guda biyu sun yi karo da juna, gwada sifa ta farko.
Aikin aikace-aikace
Zaɓi alamar da kuke amfani da ita akai-akai a cikin kasuwancin ku. Shin AI ta cire tushen da jerin bayanan metadata tare da samfuri 1 da 3 a sama. Sa'an nan nemo mai nuni iri ɗaya daga tushe guda biyu (misali TURKSTAT da Bankin Duniya) kuma ku kwatanta alkaluman; Idan akwai bambanci, gano dalilin da samfuri 4 kuma ku lura da bincikenku a cikin jimloli uku.
jerin abubuwan dubawa
- [ ] Na zaɓi tushen farko da ya dace da manufara (Na sanya bambanci tsakanin kwatancen hukuma / na duniya na Türkiye).
- [ ] Na tabbatar da rukunin, shekara ta tushe, bayanin da sabunta kwanan watan jerin daga shafin hukuma.
- [ ] Na yi amfani da bayanan da na ɗauka daga ainihin tushe, ba "samfuran adadi" da aka bayar ta hanyar basirar wucin gadi ba.
- [ ] Na kwatanta aƙalla ƴan abubuwan lura a zahiri tare da littafin hukuma.
- [ ] Na duba matsayin bita/ sigar kuma na lura da sigar da nake amfani da ita.
- [ ] Na bayyana rikice-rikicen tushen guda biyu ta hanyar daidaita metadata.
- [ ] Na sanya tushen kowane adadi da na yi amfani da shi a iya gano shi tare da bayanin kula.