Riba:
- Ƙarfin fahimtar hanyoyin ƙididdigewa, ma'auni da maki uku (PERT) da kuma amfani da hankali na wucin gadi don samar da ƙididdiga na lokaci da albarkatun.
- Ikon fassara rashin tabbas na hasashen (natsuwa / mai yuwuwa / yanayi mara kyau, tazarar amincewa) da tsarin tushe akan kewayon maimakon lamba ɗaya.
- Ƙarfin gane cewa hasashen AI ya dogara ne akan tsarin tarihi da zato, kuma dole ne a tabbatar da kasafin kuɗi na ƙarshe da ƙaddamar da lokaci tare da bayanan ƙungiyar da yanke hukunci na ƙwararru.
Ƙididdiga shine aiki mafi wahala da haɗari a cikin sarrafa ayyukan. "Har yaushe wannan zai ɗauka?" kuma "mutane nawa yake ɗauka?" Amsoshin waɗannan tambayoyin sune tushen jadawalin, kasafin kuɗi da kuma alkawarin da aka yi wa abokin ciniki. Ƙididdiga mara kyau zai nutse ko da aikin da aka gudanar da kyau: kuma da kyakkyawan fata lokaci zai haifar da jinkiri da azabtarwa, kuma rashin tausayi lokaci zai kai ga rasa farashin. Hankali na wucin gadi babban mataimaki ne a wannan fanni; yana ba da lokaci a cikin daƙiƙa. Wannan shine ainihin dalilin da ya sa wannan shine inda ya fi haɗari: AI na iya samar da adadi mai aminci ba tare da sanin ainihin saurin ƙungiyar ku ba. A cikin wannan rukunin, za mu rufe hanyoyin kintace, yadda ake amfani da AI cikin aminci a cikin tsinkaya, da yadda ake tabbatar da kowane hasashen.
Hanyoyin hasashen asali
Bari mu ayyana hanyoyi kaɗan. Hasashen ma'ana yana nufin kallon irin wannan aiki a baya da cewa "wanda ya ɗauki kwanaki 10, wannan yana kama da shi"; Yana da sauri amma m. Ƙididdigar ƙididdigewa yana ninka farashi/lokaci na raka'a da yawa (misali "kwanaki 0.5 a kowane shafi × 40 shafuka = kwanaki 20"); ya dogara ne akan bayanai. Ƙididdigar ƙididdiga ta ƙasa da tara kowane fakitin aiki daban; Shi ne mafi daidaito amma a hankali. Ƙimar maki uku (PERT) yana yarda da rashin tabbas: ga kowane ɗawainiya, ana ƙididdige kyakkyawan fata (O), mafi yuwuwar (M), da tsattsauran ra'ayi (P) kuma ana ɗaukar matsakaicin nauyi.
Tsarin PERT shine: Tsawon lokacin da ake tsammani = (O + 4M + P) / 6. Misali, don aiki, idan kyakkyawan fata na kwanaki 4 shine mafi kusantar kwanaki 6, ana sa ran kwanaki 14 mara kyau = (4 + 24 + 14) / 6 = kwanaki 7. Matsakaicin daidaituwa shine (P - O) / 6 = (14 - 4) / 6 ≈ 1.7 kwanaki; Wannan yana nuna alamar rashin tabbas. Maimakon faɗin "kwanaki 6" guda ɗaya, shirin mafi gaskiya shine a faɗi "kwanaki 7 da ake tsammani, karkacewa ± 1.7 kwanaki".
Bugu da ƙari, ra'ayoyi guda biyu suna da mahimmanci. Ƙoƙari shine adadin kwanakin mutum da ake buƙata don aikin (misali kwanaki 10 na mutum). Tsawon kwanaki nawa ne wannan aikin zai ɗauka akan kalanda. Mutane biyu za su iya gama aikin kwanaki 10 na mutum a cikin kwanaki 5; amma ba kowane aiki ba ne za a iya raba shi marar iyaka (mata tara ba za su iya haihuwa a cikin wata ɗaya ba). AI na iya rikitar da biyun; dole ne ku raba shi.
Hanya
Yaushe ya dace?
gudun
daidaito
Matsayin AI
nazarin halittu
Matakin farko, ƙaramin bayani
babba
ƙananan
Yana ba da shawarar irin tsarin aikin
parametric
Idan akwai naúrar da ake aunawa
babba
matsakaici
Yana ƙirƙira dabara da zayyana ɗaya
kasa sama
Idan akwai cikakken WBS
ƙananan
babba
Tattara fakitin zayyana
Maki uku (PERT)
Idan rashin tabbas ya yi yawa
matsakaici
matsakaici-high
Yana ba da shawarar yanayin O/M/P
Mataki-mataki: Hasashen lafiya tare da AI
- Saka bayanan ƙungiyar farko. Ka ba AI abubuwan abubuwan da suka faru a baya: "Ayyukan makamancin haka sun ɗauki wannan tsawon lokaci akan ƙungiyarmu." Don haka hasashen ya dogara ne akan bayanan ku, ba gamayya ba.
- Zaɓi hanyar. Idan rashin tabbas ya yi yawa, nemi PERT; parametric idan akwai naúrar aunawa.
- Tambayi dige guda uku, ba lambobi ɗaya ba. Nemi ƙimar O/M/P da zato ga kowane fakitin.
- Sanya zato a bayyane. Buga zato da ke ƙarƙashin kowane ƙididdiga (misali "yanayin gwaji a shirye", "abokin ciniki ya dawo cikin kwanaki 2"); Zaton kuskure kuskure ne.
- Ƙara tushe kuma raba. Ƙoƙari daban-daban daga lokaci, la'akari da hutu da samuwa (misali mutum yana da haƙiƙanin haɓaka 4 kwana a mako).
- Daidaita tare da tawagar. Yi bitar ƙiyasin ƙarshe tare da mutanen da za su yi aikin. Hasashen ya zama abin dogaro lokacin da wanda ya yi shi ya mallake shi.
Hankali: Tambayi AI "kwana nawa wannan aikin zai ɗauka?" Tambaya da rubuta lambar da aka samu kai tsaye cikin ginshiƙi shine mafi haɗari nau'i na tsinkaya. Wannan lambar ba ta haɗa da bayanan ƙungiyar ku ba; tsari ne na gaba ɗaya kuma yana iya zama hallucination.
uku mini lokuta
Hali na 1 - Tsarin gaskiya tare da PERT. Wata ƙungiyar software ta tambayi AI don tsinkayar O/M/P da zato don tsarin aikin 12. AI ya ba da daftarin; Tawagar ta gyara kowace manufa tare da bayanan tarihinta. Jimlar lokacin da ake tsammanin kwanaki 38 ne, jimlar rashin bege ya kasance kwanaki 52. PM ya ba abokin ciniki wa'adin kwanaki 45 kuma ya bar tazarar kwanaki 7. An kammala aikin a rana ta 44; Idan babu rabo, da an jinkirta.
Case 2 - Ƙoƙari / rikicewar lokaci. Wani mai gudanarwa ya tambayi AI, "Kwana nawa za a ɗauka don kammala ayyukan yini 80?" Yace. AI ta amsa "kwanaki 80" saboda ya rikice ƙoƙari tare da tsawon lokaci. Sanin cewa mutane 4 za su iya yin aikin a layi daya, mai gudanarwa ya gyara lokacin zuwa ~ 25 days (ba 20 ba saboda ba a rarraba). Darasi: Ya kamata 'yan adam su sarrafa ƙoƙarin / lokaci na AI.
Case 3 - Gabaɗaya mara tabbas. Wani PM ya rubuta akan ginshiƙi cewa AI ya amsa "haɗin API yawanci yana ɗaukar kwanaki 5." Kwarewar ƙungiyar a baya tare da wannan mai ba da API ba ta da kyau kuma takaddun ba su da kyau; Aikin ya dauki kwanaki 13. Idan an tambayi ƙungiyar bayanan, za a ga wannan tun daga farko. Darasi: Gabaɗaya ba madadin gaskiyar ƙungiyar ba.
Rauni mai ƙarfi / Ƙarfi mai ƙarfi
Rawanin faɗakarwa:
Kwanaki nawa ake ɗauka don kafa rukunin yanar gizon e-commerce?
Wannan hanzari yana tilasta AI don samar da lambar da aka yi ba tare da sanin bayanan aikin ku ba. Babu kungiya, babu iyaka, babu tabbas.
Ƙarfi mai ƙarfi:
Matsayinku: ƙwararren ƙididdiga. Magana: A ƙasa akwai fakitin aiki guda 8 da makamantan ayyukan ƙungiyarmu da suka gabata. Aiki: Ƙirƙirar ma'auni-Uku (kyakkyawan O / mafi kusantar M / m P) ƙididdiga na tsawon lokaci don kowane fakitin kuma ƙididdige lokacin da ake tsammanin PERT tare da (O+4M+P)/6. Dokoki: - Kawai ku yi la'akari da bayanan tarihi da na bayar; ƙara zato na kasuwa gabaɗaya.- Rubuta zato da ke ƙarƙashin kowane ƙima a cikin layi ɗaya.- Nuna ƙoƙarin (kwanakin mutum) da tsawon lokaci (kwanakin kalanda) a cikin wani shafi daban. Fitowa: tebur (Package | O | M | P | PERT | Ƙoƙari | Zato). Bayanan tarihi: - Haɗin kuɗi (tarihin: 9,11,8 kwanakin) - Katalojin samfurin (tarihin: kwanakin 6.5) - ... (sauran fakiti)
Wannan da'awar tana da ƙarfi: hanya (PERT), iyakar tushen bayanai, buƙatun zato, da bambance-bambancen ƙoƙari/lokaci a bayyane suke.
Ƙarin samfura:
# Zato mafarauci Lissafta duk zato da kuka yarda da shi a matsayin gaskiya don wannan hasashen ya zama gaskiya. Ga kowane zato, kimanta nawa zai shafi lokacin idan ya zama ba daidai ba.
# Binciken hankali Idan mafi yuwuwar tsawon lokacin aikin mai zuwa shine M; Ta yaya jimlar tsawon aikin ke canzawa idan M ya karu da kashi 20%?Wanne ayyuka 3 ne suka fi kula da jimlar tsawon lokaci? (Dole ne a fara kallon waɗannan ayyukan.)
# Mai ba da shawara na gaggawa Dangane da karkacewar PERT da ke ƙasa, ba da shawarar adadin iznin lokaci mai ma'ana don ɗaukacin aikin kuma bayyana abin da kuka kafa wannan a kai. Wannan shawara ce; Kaso na ƙarshe na mai sarrafa ne.
Kuskuren gama gari
- Manne da lamba ɗaya: Faɗin “kwana 10” yana ɓoye rashin tabbas; Kewayon O/M/P gaskiya ne.
- Ƙoƙari mai ruɗani tare da lokaci: Kwanakin mutum 40 ba kwanakin kalanda 40 ba ne.
- Tsammanin samuwa 100%: Babu wanda zai iya ba da kwana 5 a mako don wannan aikin kadai; Akwai tarurruka, ganye, katsewa.
- Bambance-bambancen kuskure don bayanan ƙungiyar: “lokacin da aka saba” AI ba saurin ƙungiyar ku ba ne.
- Ba rubuta zato ba: Zaton da ba a gani ba hasashe ne da ke fashe.
- Babu iyaka: Idan akwai rashin tabbas, madaidaicin iyaka na lokaci/kasafin kuɗi ya zama dole.
Tukwici: Idan kun gama yin hasashe, tambayi kanku: "Shin akwai damar kashi 90 na wannan lamba ta gaskiya ko kashi 50 na samunsa?" Yawancin fare-fare guda ɗaya a zahiri shine kashi 50 cikin ɗari; Sanin wannan lokacin yin alkawari ga abokin ciniki.
A takaice
Kiyasin shine aikin mafi haɗari na aikin. Hanyoyi na nazari, ma'auni, ƙasa zuwa sama, da maki uku (PERT) suna ba da sauri da daidaito daban-daban. AI yana da sauri a daftarin tsinkaya da tsara yanayin yanayi, amma yana haɓaka ba tare da sanin bayanan ƙungiyar ku ba kuma yana iya rikitar da ƙoƙari / lokaci. Amintaccen zato; Sanya bayanan ƙungiyar farko, aiki a cikin maki uku, yin zato a bayyane, raba ƙoƙari da lokaci, da daidaita lambar ƙarshe tare da ƙungiyar. Kwanan da aka ƙaddamar da kasafin kuɗi koyaushe suna fuskantar tabbacin ɗan adam.
Aikin aikace-aikace
Zaɓi ayyuka 5 daga aikin ku. Tambayi AI don kimanta O/M/P da PERT lokacin da ake tsammanin kowane (ba da bayanan tarihin ƙungiyar ku ba tare da suna ba). Sa'an nan kuma rubuta zato a bayan kowane ɗawainiya kuma duba ƙididdiga tare da memba na ƙungiyar wanda zai yi aikin. Gyara aƙalla ƙididdiga guda biyu dangane da bayanan ƙungiyar kuma ƙayyade madaidaicin tazarar lokaci don jimlar.
jerin abubuwan dubawa
- [ ] Na dogara da kimantawa akan bayanan tarihin ƙungiyara, ba akan gama gari ba.
- [ ] Na yi O/M/P (digige uku) maimakon lambobi marasa kyau.
- [ ] Na rubuta zato a ƙarƙashin kowane tsinkaya.
- [ ] Na raba kokarin (mutum-ran) da lokaci (kalandar).
- [ ] Na yi la'akari da ainihin ƙuntatawa kamar samuwa/izni.
- [ ] Na bar rata mai ma'ana don rashin tabbas kuma na daidaita ƙima tare da ƙungiyar.