Raka'a
1. Gabatarwa zuwa Haƙiƙa na Artificial da La'anar Tabbatarwa a Injiniyan Man Fetur da Gas 2. Bayanan Hakowa, Rijiyoyin Rijiyoyi da Fassarar Petrophysical 3. Binciken Bayanai na Seismic, Haɓaka Fassara da Fassarar Tsari 4. Halayen Tafki, Samfuran Facies da Geostatistics 5. Hasashen Hasashen samarwa, Binciken Lanƙwalwar Drawdown da Ƙididdiga 6. Hakowa da Inganta Haɓakawa 7. Hasashen Kulawa da Amincewar Kayan aiki 8. HSE, Tsari Tsari da Hadarin Aiki 9. Kula da bututun mai, Ganewar Leak da Gudanar da Mutunci 10. Analysis Data tare da Python: Oil-Gas Workflows 11. Ka'ida, Da'a, Sirrin Bayanai da Gudanarwar Tabbatar da Gaskiya
Naúrar 5 / 11

Hasashen Hasashen samarwa, Binciken Lanƙwalwar Drawdown da Ƙididdiga

Riba:

  • Ability don bayyana hasashen samarwa da kuma hasashen EUR tare da nazarin zane-zane (DCA), samfuran Arps da koyon injin.
  • Ikon sanya AI a cikin samar da bayanan tsaftacewa, zaɓin tsarin mulki da rarrabuwa (1P / 2P / 3P)
  • Ikon tabbatar da fitowar hasashen samarwa tare da iyakoki na raguwar jiki, ma'auni na kayan aiki da ma'aunin rahoto

Lokacin da aka sanya rijiya a cikin samarwa, tana ba da mafi girman adadin ruwa a rana ta farko kuma tana raguwa akan lokaci; saboda matsa lamba na tafki yana raguwa kuma ruwan yana raguwa. Aunawa, yin samfuri da faɗaɗa wannan koma baya zuwa gaba shine tushen tattalin arzikin mai da iskar gas. Rage Binciken Curve (DCA) shine ƙididdige samarwa na gaba da jimillar ƙarar da za a iya dawo da ita (EUR - Ƙimar Ƙarshen Farko) ta hanyar dacewa da tsarin zane na lissafi zuwa tarihin samarwa. Wannan ƙididdigewa yana fassara kai tsaye zuwa adadi na ajiyar kuma saboda haka ƙimar kamfani, yanke shawara na saka hannun jari da sanarwar ƙa'ida. A cikin wannan rukunin, muna amfani da hankali na wucin gadi don tsaftace bayanan samarwa, zaɓi ƙirar ƙira da samar da yanayi. Dokar da ba ta canzawa: EUR shine kimantawa, ba daidaito ba; Ba a taɓa ayyana shi ba tare da an gwada shi tare da iyakoki na jiki da ma'auni na kayan aiki, musamman ta hanyar ɗaukar gefen kyakkyawan fata.

Bari Mu Sani Samfuran Arps

DCA na gargajiya ya dogara ne akan nau'ikan zane uku na Arps:

  • Ƙididdigar maɗaukaki: Ƙididdigar ƙididdigewa yana kayyade; Ita ce mafi ƙarancin ra'ayin mazan jiya (mafi ƙarancin EUR). Yana kusa da halayen marigayi.
  • Haɓakar hyperbolic: Adadin raguwa yana raguwa akan lokaci; Ana sarrafa shi ta hanyar tushe b. b=0 yayi daidai da juzu'i, b=1 yayi dai-dai da jigon. Yawancin rijiyoyi suna da zafi a farkon lokaci zuwa tsakiyar lokaci.
  • Digo mai jituwa: b=1; mafi kyawu (mafi girman EUR). Yana da wuya aiki ga dukan rayuwa.

Muhimmin batu shine farkon b. Yayin da b ya karu, raguwa yana raguwa kuma EUR yana girma. Idan an ɗauki b>1 kuma an fitar da shi zuwa dogon lokaci, raguwar za ta ragu ba da gaske ba kuma EUR zai fashe. Wannan shi ne kuskuren da aka fi sani fiye da fata a cikin masana'antar.

Tsanaki: A cikin rijiyoyin al'ada b yawanci a cikin kewayon 0-0.5; A cikin rijiyoyin da ba na al'ada ba irin su shale gas / man fetur, ana iya ganin b>1 a farkon lokaci, amma ba za a iya ɗauka zuwa dogon lokaci ba. Ana amfani da mafi ƙarancin ƙarancin ƙima (ƙarshen ƙarshe) koyaushe a ƙarshen lokacin. Idan AI ta fitar da shekaru 30 tare da b=1.3, wannan alama ce ja.

Rarraba Reserve

Hasashen samarwa ya kasu kashi-kashi na rashin tabbas lokacin da ake jujjuyawa zuwa ma'aji:

  • 1P (An tabbatar): Babban ƙarfin zuciya; tare da tabbacin cewa za a samar da shi ta fuskar tattalin arziki. Kimanin P90 (yiwuwar 90% na akalla haka).
  • 2P (Tabbas + Mai yiwuwa): Matsakaici yanayi, a kusa da P50.
  • 3P (Tabbas + Mai yuwuwa + Mai yuwuwa): Yanayin kyakkyawan fata, kusan P10.

Ana gudanar da wannan rarrabuwa ta ma'auni kamar PRMS (Tsarin Gudanar da Albarkatun Man Fetur) da SEC kuma alhakin ƙwararren mai ƙima ne. AI na iya taimakawa samar da yanayi amma ba zai iya "bayyana" ajiyar ba.

Mataki-mataki: Gudun aiki na DCA

  1. Share bayanai. Lokutan rufewa (rufe rijiya), kurakuran aunawa, shiga tsakani (aciding, sake cikawa) suna karkatar da tsarin samarwa. Yi la'akari da waɗannan; AI na iya duba abubuwan waje, amma kun yanke shawara.
  2. Zaɓi tsarin zaɓe. Magudanar ruwa ta farko ko ta mamaye iyaka? DCA abin dogara ne kawai a cikin lokacin da ke kan iyaka.
  3. Yi samfuri. Daidaita sigogin Arps (yawan kwararar farko, ƙimar raguwa, b); Ci gaba da b cikin kewayon jiki.
  4. Aiwatar da tasha drawdown. Canja zuwa mafi ƙarancin ƙira a cikin ƙarshen lokacin; guje wa haɓakar hyperbolic mara iyaka.
  5. Rubuta shi. Samar da P90/P50/P10 EUR.
  6. Tabbatar. Gwada tare da ma'auni na kayan aiki da kwatankwacin maƙwabci.

Karamin Harkoki guda uku: Ta Lambobi

Case 1 - tushe b tarko. A kan rijiyar mai guda ɗaya, AI ya dace b=1.5 zuwa farkon watanni 18 na bayanai kuma an fitar da shi zuwa shekaru 30; Yuro ya karu zuwa ganga dubu 620. Lokacin da injiniyan ya yi amfani da cirewar tasha (8% / shekara), EUR ya ragu zuwa ganga dubu 410. Ma'auni na kayan aiki da kwatankwacin filin suna tallafawa kusan dubu 400. Karɓar makafi zai wuce kima da 50%.

Case 2 - Tsabtace bayanan datti. Tsawon lokaci guda biyu na raguwa (kwarewa) sun bayyana azaman ƙananan ƙima a cikin lanƙwasa samar da rijiyar; Zane-zanen da aka dace da danyen bayanan ya nuna "raguwa cikin sauri" wanda ba ya wanzu a gaskiya. Alamar AI; Lokacin da aka cire dakatarwa kuma an daidaita kwanakin samarwa na ainihi, raguwar raguwa ya zama mai gaskiya (14% / shekara maimakon 22% / shekara). Tsaftacewa ya gyara hasashen.

Case 3 - Rashin ruwa mai wucewa. Wani injiniya ya yi amfani da DCA zuwa farkon watanni 3 na samarwa; Har yanzu wannan lokacin yana gudana na ɗan lokaci (sakamakon iyakar bai fara ba). AI ya fito daga wannan farkon steepness tare da babban raguwar ƙimar da ƙarancin EUR. Binciken da aka yi bayan jiran sauye-sauye zuwa lokacin da ke kan iyaka ya ba da raguwar gaske. Sanin lokacin da DCA ke aiki yana da mahimmanci.

Rauni Mai Sauƙi / Ƙarfi Mai ƙarfi

Rawanin faɗakarwa:

Daidaita lanƙwan zazzagewa zuwa wannan bayanan samarwa kuma ku faɗa wa ajiyar.[bayanai]

Ƙarfi mai ƙarfi:

DRAFT nazarin lankwasa na zana kan waɗannan bayanan samarwa na wata-wata (wanda ba a sani ba). Dokoki: - Alamar farko ta rufe lokacin / dakatarwa, shiga tsakani da abubuwan waje; Cire waɗannan daga ƙiren ƙaryar mafarki kuma rubuta hujjar ku. - Ƙimar ko bayanan na wucin gadi ne ko a cikin iyakar da ke mamaye iyaka; DCA yana aiki ne kawai a lokacin iyaka-mafi rinjaye, nuna idan bai dace ba.- Gyara arps; Kiyaye ma'anar b a cikin kewayon jiki (na al'ada 0-0.5). Aiwatar da iyakar zazzagewa tasha a ƙarshen lokacin. KADA KA yi rashin iyaka hyperbolic extrapolation.- Ba da EUR a matsayin P90/P50/P10, ba lamba ɗaya ba.- Rubuta yadda za a tabbatar da ma'auni na kayan aiki / kusa da kyau.Data: [tebur na samarwa]

Samfura guda huɗu masu Kwafi

1) Tsabtace bayanan samarwa:

Alama dakatarwa, shiga tsakani, ƙimar sifili/mara kyau da madaidaici a cikin bayanan samarwa masu zuwa a matsayin tebur "kwanan wata | matsala | shawara". KAR KA GYARA bayanan, kawai yi alama. Table: [production]

2) Fahimtar tsarin rashin daidaituwa:

Daga bayanan samarwa da matsa lamba masu zuwa (idan akwai), kimanta ko kwararar ta kasance mai wucewa ko iyaka. Ƙayyade lokacin da DCA za ta kasance abin dogaro. Bayyana haɗarin daidaita shi zuwa farkon lokacin. Bayanai: [gudanarwa/matsi]

3) Daidaitawar Arps da labari:

Daidaita ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun bayanai da hyperbolic Arps zuwa tsabtataccen bayanan samarwa da ke ƙasa. kiyaye b a cikin 0-0.5; Aiwatar da zazzagewar ƙarshen X% a ƙarshen. Ba da yanayi uku (P90/P50/P10) EUR kuma rubuta waɗanne zato sun fi tasiri. Bayanai: [Tsaftataccen samarwa]

4) Binciken giciye na EUR:

Bincika wannan hasashen EUR: shin yawan samarwa + ragowar jimlar hasashen ya yi daidai da ma'auni na kayan fili/tazara mai kyau? Lissafa alamomin kyakkyawan fata/tabbatuwa. EUR da abubuwan shiga: [daraja]

Jagorar Zabin Model Drawdown

abin koyi

b farko

Farashin EUR

yaushe

m

0

Mafi ƙasƙanci (mai ra'ayin mazan jiya)

Marigayi girma da kyau

hyperbolic

0-1

matsakaici

Lokacin farkon-tsakiyar, yawancin rijiyoyi

masu jituwa

1

Babban (mai kyakkyawan fata)

Rare, yi amfani da hankali

Unlimited hyperbolic

> 1 dogon lokaci

Yayi tsayi sosai (ba daidai ba)

Kada ku yi amfani; yi amfani da iyakar iyaka

Kuskuren gama gari

  • Dogon extrapolation tare da babban b. b>Motsa 1 zuwa shekaru da ƙari da EUR; tsallake tasha.
  • Daidaita shi zuwa bayanan datti. Cire mafarkai ba tare da share fage da shiga tsakani ba.
  • Aiwatar da DCA zuwa kwarara mai wucewa. Yin hasashe kafin lokacin mamayar kan iyaka ya fara.
  • Lambar mara kyau EUR. Ba a ba da rahoton rashin tabbas ba (P90/P50/P10).
  • Tsallake ma'aunin abu. Ba gwada EUR tare da sarrafa jiki / analog mai zaman kansa ba.

A takaice

  • DCA shine ƙididdige samarwa na gaba da EUR ta hanyar daidaita madaidaicin madaidaicin zuwa tarihin samarwa.
  • Arps b prime yana da mahimmanci; Dogon extrapolation tare da babban b mai haɗari yana haɓaka ƙimar EUR, fashewar ƙarshen yana da mahimmanci.
  • AI yana taimakawa wajen tsaftace bayanai da tsara yanayin yanayi; amma ba zai iya bayyana ajiyar ba, ƙwararren mai tantancewa ya tabbatar.
  • Rahoton EUR azaman rarraba P90/P50/P10; Aiwatar da DCA kawai a lokacin mafi girman iyaka.
  • Tabbatar da sakamakon ta hanyar ma'auni na kayan aiki da kwatanci mai kyau kusa.

Aikin aikace-aikace

Sami bayanan samarwa kowane wata don rijiyar (wakili). Ƙirƙirar daftarin DCA tare da faɗakarwa mai ƙarfi. Sa'an nan: (1) yi alama kuma cire aƙalla tasha / waje ɗaya, (2) duba alamar b na ƙirar kuma yi amfani da fa'ida ta ƙarshe idan ta kasance sama da 1, (3) nemi EUR a cikin al'amura guda uku kuma kusan samar da P50 tare da tarawa + sauran dabaru.

jerin abubuwan dubawa

  • [ ] Na san ƙirar Arps masu fa'ida / hyperbolic / jituwa da tasirin b prime akan EUR.
  • [ ] Ina tsaftace bayanan samarwa don raguwa / sa baki.
  • [ ] Ina amfani da DCA kawai a lokacin da ke mamaye iyaka.
  • Ina kiyaye [] b firamare a cikin kewayon jiki kuma na yi amfani da zazzagewar tasha, tare da ba da EUR P90/P50/P10.
  • [ ] Yana tabbatar da EUR tare da ma'auni na kayan aiki da analog da kyau, Na fahimci cewa bayanin ajiyar alhakin mai tantancewa ne.
A baya Na gaba