Riba:
- Ikon daidaitawa da aiwatar da matakai na rangwamen tsabar kuɗi (DCF) da hanyoyin ninkawa tare da AI
- Ability don gwada tasirin zato mai mahimmanci kamar ƙimar rangwame, haɓakawa da ƙimar ƙarshe akan sakamakon tare da AI
- Ikon tambayar sakamakon kimar da AI ya samar tare da azanci da kuma sarrafa plausibility
Kima shine "nawa ne wannan kamfani ko darajar kadara?" Binciken tsari ne don neman amsar tambayar. Wannan tambayar ta ta'allaka ne a zuciyar saye, haɗin gwiwa, IPO ko shawarar saka hannun jari. Akwai manyan iyalai guda biyu na kimantawa: rangwamen tsabar kuɗi (DCF), wato, ɗaukar kuɗin da kamfani zai samar a gaba zuwa darajar da yake yanzu; da yawa, wato, yin kwatancen dangane da darajar kasuwa na kamfanoni iri ɗaya. AI yana haɓaka ƙima sosai: yana daidaita matakan DCF, yana rangwamen tsabar kuɗi, ƙididdige ƙimar ta ƙarshe, kuma yana samar da tebur masu hankali. Amma tsananin gaskiyar kima shine cewa sakamakon yana da matuƙar kula ga ƴan zato masu mahimmanci. Canza ƙimar rangwamen da maki ɗaya zai iya motsa ƙimar ta dubun ɗari. Don haka ba adadi ɗaya ba ne na ƙimar da AI ke samarwa ba, amma nau'ikan dabi'u dangane da zato, shine ainihin fitarwa.
A cikin wannan rukunin, za mu koyi aiwatar da matakan DCF da hanyoyin ninkawa tare da AI, gwada tasirin zato mai mahimmanci akan sakamakon, da kuma duba sakamakon ƙima don dacewa.
Ra'ayoyi: DCF: Hanyar da ke rangwamen kuɗi na gaba zuwa yanzu ta amfani da ƙimar rangwame. Rangwamen kuɗi: Rate ɗin da aka yi amfani da shi don nemo ƙimar kuɗi na gaba; yana nuna haɗarin. Ƙimar ƙarshe: Takaitacciyar duk tafiyar kuɗi bayan lokacin hasashen. Multiplier: Alamar alamar da ke raba darajar kasuwa ta adadin kuɗi (riba, EBITDA, juyawa). EBITDA: Abubuwan da ake samu kafin riba, haraji da raguwa.
Farashin DCF
DCF yayi kama da hadaddun, amma dabararsa tana daure. Samun AI yana gina wannan sarkar mataki-mataki yana ba da gaskiya duka kuma yana sauƙaƙa ware kuskuren.
mataki
me za ayi
zato mai mahimmanci
1. Hasashen tsabar kuɗi
Gudun tsabar kuɗi kyauta na shekaru 5 masu zuwa
girma, gefe
2. Rangwamen kudi
An ƙaddara ƙimar da ke nuna haɗarin
farashin jari
3. Ragewa
Ana fitar da kuɗin kowace shekara zuwa yau
farashin rangwame
4. Ƙimar ƙarshe
An taƙaita bayan shekara ta 5
m girma
5. Jima'i
Rage darajar + tasha
hade da duka
Gaskiya mai mahimmanci: Yawancin lokaci fiye da rabin ƙimar DCF ta fito ne daga ƙimar ƙarshen. Ƙimar tasha tana da matuƙar kulawa ga ɗan ƙaramin bambanci tsakanin ƙimar ragi da ƙimar girma ta ƙarshe. Waɗannan zato guda biyu sune mafi rauni na DCF kuma dole ne a gabatar da su don nazarin hankali.
Tsanaki: Faɗa wa AI don "daraja wannan kamfani" da samun lamba ɗaya ya saba wa ruhun kima. Idan farashin rangwamen ya kasance 13% maimakon 11%, ƙimar ta ragu watakila 25%. Lambar da ba ta dace ba tana ba da madaidaicin ɓatarwa; Madaidaicin fitarwa shine rukuni na dabi'u a cikin madaidaicin zato.
Gina DCF tare da AI
Tsarin tsarin DCF: "Kafa DCF na shekara 5 ga kamfani
Matrix Sensitivity mai sauri: "Girƙirar tebur mai saurin canzawa guda biyu don DCF iri ɗaya: ƙimar rangwame a cikin layuka (12% -16%, mataki na 1), haɓaka ta ƙarshe a cikin ginshiƙan (2% -5%, mataki na 1). Nuna jimlar ƙimar kamfani a cikin kowane tantanin halitta kuma yin sharhi kan yadda ƙimar ƙimar ke da waɗannan zato guda biyu. "
Ƙimar ƙimar ƙima mai yawa: "Ƙimar kamfani tare da hanyar mai yawa. EBITDA ita ce 30 miliyan TL. Ƙwararren EV/EBITDA na kamfanoni masu kama da juna yana cikin kewayon 6x-8x (la'akari da wannan kewayon a matsayin 'albarkatun da ake buƙata'). Yi ƙididdige ƙimar ƙimar kamfani tare da wannan kewayon kuma ba shi a cikin tsari mai kama da sakamakon DCF. "
Bincika mai ma'ana da sauri: "Duba ƙimar DCF da kuka samo kamar haka: (1) sau nawa kamfanin EBITDA na shekara-shekara ya nuna ƙimar da aka samu ya dace kuma wannan mai yawa yana da ma'ana bisa ga sashin? (2) nawa kashi na jimlar darajar shine darajar tashar? Idan ya wuce 80%, bayyana dalilin da yasa yake da haɗari. (3) nawa ne girman girman girman girman girma fiye da idan lokacin girma ya fi girma fiye da lokacin da yakin ya kasance mafi girma fiye da girman girma fiye da idan ka'idar ya kasance.
Rauni Mai Sauƙi / Ƙarfi Mai ƙarfi
RAUNI: "Nawa ne darajar wannan kamfani?" (Sakamakon: adadi guda ɗaya wanda ba shi da tallafi; wanda zato, wace hanya ba ta da tabbas.) KARFI: "Kafa DCF tare da tsabar kudi na kyauta na shekaru 5, 14% rangwame, da kuma 4% haɓaka haɓakar haɓaka, nuna matakan; sa'an nan kuma ƙara matrix sensitivity ga rangwame da ci gaban m, kuma bayar da rahoton ƙimar ƙarshe a matsayin rabon adadin adadin, don haka ba zan sami adadin adadin ba. "
Mini Cases
Case 1 - Nauyin darajar tasha. Wani manazarci yana darajar kamfani a 240 miliyan TL tare da DCF. Lokacin da yake gudanar da faɗakarwa da sauri, tashar tashar ta ga cewa ƙimar ita ce 86% na jimlar. Don haka kusan duk ƙimar ta dogara ne akan hasashen haɓaka shekaru 5 masu zuwa. Lokacin da manazarci ya rage girman girma daga 4% zuwa 3%, ƙimar ta ragu daga 240 zuwa miliyan 205. An yanke shawarar ta hanyar ba da rahoton wannan raunin a fili.
Case 2 - Hanyoyi biyu a daya. A cikin ƙimar siye, DCF yana ba da TL miliyan 180, kuma hanyar ninkawa (6x-8x EBITDA) tana ba da rukunin 180-240 miliyan TL. Haɗin kai na hanyoyi masu zaman kansu guda biyu yana ƙara amincewa; Gaskiyar cewa DCF yana a ƙananan ƙarshen band ɗin yana nuna cewa zato DCF suna da ra'ayin mazan jiya. Ta hanyar kwatanta hanyoyin biyu, manazarci yana ba da fa'ida ta gaske don yin shawarwari.
Case 3 - Bambanci maras tabbas. A cikin DCF, AI ya ɗauki rangwamen kuɗi kamar 5% da haɓakar ƙarshen kamar 4.5%; Saboda bambancin ƙanƙanta ne, ƙimar tasha ta fashe kuma ƙimar kamfani ta zama babba. A cikin bincikensa na fa'ida, manazarcin ya gano cewa wannan bambance-bambancen yana da kunkuntar: idan farashin rangwamen ya dan kadan sama da girma, darajar tasha ta wuce gona da iri. Da zarar an yi zato na gaskiya, ƙimar ta koma al'ada.
Tukwici: Tabbatar amfani da DCF tare da hanyar ninkawa, ba kaɗai ba. Idan hanyoyi masu zaman kansu guda biyu sun haɗu, ƙarfin ku yana ƙaruwa; Idan sun yi nisa sosai, akwai abin tambaya a cikin zato na akalla daya daga cikinsu.
Ka'idar Kima ta Zinariya
Ƙimar kima ba al'amari ne na daidaito ba, amma batu ne na hukunci da iyaka. Kula da ka'idoji guda uku lokacin amfani da AI:
- Ƙungiya, ba lamba ɗaya ba: Mayar da kowace ƙima zuwa ƙungiya tsakanin madaidaicin zato.
- Mallake zato: Kada ka bari AI ta zaɓi ƙimar ragi da haɓaka; Kuna ƙaddara kuma ku gaskata shi.
- Tabbatar da giciye: kwatanta DCF da ninka; Babban bambance-bambancen gargadi ne.
Kuskuren gama gari
- Ƙimar da lamba ɗaya. Ƙimar da aka bayar ba tare da hankali ba daidai ne a cikin yaudara.
- Yin watsi da mai ƙididdige ƙimar ƙima. Idan yawancin ƙimar ta fito daga tashar tashar, haɗarin yana can.
- Barin ragi-girma rangwame kunkuntar. Ƙananan bambanci a lissafi yana haɓaka ƙimar tasha.
- Barin zato zuwa AI. Rangwamen kuɗi shine hukunci; Dole ne a sami tushe da hujja.
- Samun gamsuwa da hanya ɗaya. Rashin kwatanta DCF da ninkawa yana sa kuskuren ya zama marar ganuwa.
a takaice
Ƙimar ƙima wani lamari ne na hukunci wanda ke jawo tsabar kuɗi na gaba zuwa yanzu (DCF) ko kwatanta shi da takwarorinsu (masu yawa). AI da sauri ya kafa matakan, amma sakamakon yana da matukar damuwa ga zato masu mahimmanci da yawa, musamman ƙimar ragi da haɓaka ta ƙarshe. Samar da ƙungiyar ƙima tare da matrix mai hankali, ba lamba ɗaya ba; duba rabon ƙimar tasha a cikin jimlar; Tabbatar tabbatar da tabbatar da DCF tare da hanyar ninkawa. Ka guji ruɗin tabbas a cikin ƙima.
Aikin aikace-aikace
Shin AI ta shigar da DCF na shekaru 5; Kuna ba da tsabar kuɗi, ƙimar rangwame da zato na haɓaka ta ƙarshe kuma kuna nuna matakan daban. Sannan nemi matrix na hankali biyu don ƙimar ragi da haɓaka ta ƙarshe. Gudanar da saurin bincikar bayyanawa kuma kimanta rabon ƙimar tasha a jimillar da bambancin girma-ragi. A ƙarshe, ƙididdige kamfani ɗaya tare da ƙungiyar mai ninka ta EBITDA kuma kwatanta shi da sakamakon DCF.
jerin abubuwan dubawa
- [ ] Na nuna matakan DCF (gudanar kuɗi, rangwame, tasha, duka) daban.
- [ ] Na ƙaddara kuma na ba da hujjar ƙimar rangwame da haɓaka ta ƙarshe da kaina.
- [ ] Na gina matrix mai sauƙin jujjuyawar hankali biyu.
- [ ] Na duba rabon ƙimar tasha a cikin jimlar.
- [ ] Na tabbatar da cewa bambance-bambancen girma na rangwame yana da ma'ana.
- [ ] Na haye-tabbatar da DCF tare da hanyar ninkawa.
- [ ] Na gabatar da sakamakon a matsayin ƙungiyar ƙima, ba lamba ɗaya ba.