Riba:
- Ability don rarrabe zato, direba da matakan fitarwa na ƙirar kuɗi tare da AI
- Ability don saita kyakkyawan fata / tushe / yanayi mara kyau da tebur masu hankali na univariate tare da tallafin AI
- Ikon tabbatar da dabarar ƙirar AI dangane da ma'anar madauwari, dabara da daidaiton zato
Samfurin kuɗi shine tsarin lissafin da aka tsara wanda ke kwatanta makomar kamfani ko aiki tare da lambobi. A mafi sauƙi, shi ne "saka a cikin ƴan zato, samun sakamako" saitin: ta yaya riba, tsabar kudi, da ƙima ke canzawa lokacin da kuka canza ƙimar girma, ƙimar farashi, da adadin saka hannun jari? Kyakkyawan samfuri ya ƙunshi bayyanannun yadudduka uku: zato (lambobin da kuka shigar), direbobi (hanyoyin da ke haɗa waɗannan lambobi zuwa fitarwa), da fitarwa (riba, tsabar kuɗi, rates). AI yana hanzarta aiwatar da ƙirar ƙira ta hanyoyi da yawa: yana ba da shawarar kwarangwal ɗin ƙira, yana kafa dabarar dabara, ya kwaikwayi al'amura, da shirya tebur masu hankali. Amma kurakuran ƙirar mafi haɗari sune waɗanda ba a iya gani: dabarar da ba daidai ba, bayanin madauwari mai ɓoye, ko zato mara daidaituwa cikin shiru yana sa ƙirar ta yi kuskure. Mahimmancin wannan rukunin shine bincika dabarun ƙirar da AI ke ginawa.
In this unit, we will learn to separate the three layers of the model, set up optimistic/baseline/pessimistic scenarios and sentiment table, and validate the model logic of AI.
Ra'ayoyi: Zato: Lambar da kuka shigar da hannu cikin ƙirar (misali girma 10%). Direba: dabarar dabarar da ke haɗa zato zuwa fitarwa. Halin yanayi: Cikakken canji na saitin zato (kyakkyawan fata/tushe/rashin fata). Binciken hankali: Canza zato guda ɗaya mataki-mataki da ganin tasirin abin fitarwa. Maganar madauwari: Haɗin kai tsaye/ kai tsaye na tantanin halitta zuwa kanta.
Uku Layer na Model
Mafi mahimmancin ƙa'idar ladabtarwa na samfuri shine raba zato daga lissafi. Ana tattara zato a wuri ɗaya, an ɗaure asusun da su; ta yadda lokacin da kuka canza zato, ana sabunta samfurin gaba ɗaya akai-akai. Ƙaddamar da wannan bambance-bambancen yayin samun ƙirar AI.
Layer
Abun ciki
Kyakkyawan tsarin ƙira
Zato
Girma, gefe, balaga, rangwame, zuba jari
Wuri ɗaya, buɗaɗɗen lakabin
Direbobi
Formules kamar kudaden shiga = farashin × girma
Dangane da zato, babu ƙayyadadden lamba da aka saka
Abubuwan da aka fitar
Riba, tsabar kudi, rates, ƙima
An samo shi daga lissafi kawai, ba a rubuta shi da hannu ba.
Tukwici: Kada a taɓa sanya lamba "kafaffen" cikin dabarar da ke cikin ƙirar (misali = Juya *0.55). Madadin haka, sanya 0.55 a cikin tantanin zato kuma ku yi la'akari da shi. Ta wannan hanyar, lokacin da zato ya canza, ana sabunta ƙirar daga maki ɗaya kuma zaku iya ɗaukar madaidaicin ɓoye waɗanda AI ta saka.
Rubutu da Hankali
Halin da hankali abubuwa ne daban-daban kuma suna iya rikicewa. Yanayin yana canza zato da yawa tare (a cikin duniya mara kyau, duka girma yana raguwa kuma farashin yana ƙaruwa). Hankali yana keɓance zato guda ɗaya kuma yana auna tasirinsa akan fitarwa (yadda ƙimar ke canzawa idan ƙimar ragi kawai ya canza). Tare suna nuna inda samfurin ke da rauni.
Samfurin kwarangwal mai sauri: "Kafa samfurin samun riba mai sauƙi na shekaru 3 don kamfanin SaaS. Rarrabe yadudduka: (1) ASSUMPTIONS (farawa abokan ciniki 500, haɓakar kowane wata 4%, biyan kuɗi na wata-wata 1,200 TL, babban gefe 78%, ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun kuɗi na kowane wata, abokan ciniki dubu 900), (nutin kuɗin shiga na DRIS), (nutin kuɗin shiga na 900mber dubu). (3) FITOWA (kudaden shiga kowane wata, babban riba, riba mai aiki) Kada ku sanya lambobi akai-akai a cikin ma'auni, kawai ku ɗauka duka."
Scenario da sauri: "Ƙara al'amura guda uku zuwa wannan samfurin. TUSHEN DADI: da aka ba zato. KYAU: girma na wata-wata 6%, gefe 80% PESIMIST: kowane wata girma 2%, gefe 72%, ƙayyadaddun kashe kudi 10% karin. Tebur na 36th watan aiki ribar na uku al'amurran da suka shafi gefe da gefe."
Tebur mai hankali da sauri: "Nuna ma'auni na ribar aiki na wata 36 zuwa yawan ci gaban wata-wata. Canja haɓaka daga 1% zuwa 7% a cikin matakan maki 1, kiyaye sauran zato akai-akai kuma rubuta ribar a kowane mataki a cikin tebur. Taƙaice yadda m ribar shine girma a cikin jumla ɗaya."
Model duba da sauri: "A cikin samfurin da kuka gina: (1) akwai ƙayyadaddun lambobi da aka saka a cikin ƙididdiga waɗanda ba su dogara da zato ba? (2) shin akwai haɗarin da'irar tunani? (3) ƙungiyoyin sun daidaita (wata-shekara / shekara, TL / dubu TL)? Ba da rahoton kowane haɗari da kuka samu ta hanyar ƙaddamar da shi. "
Rauni Mai Sauƙi / Ƙarfi Mai ƙarfi
RAUNI: "Ka sanya ni samfurin kuɗi na shekaru 3." (Sakamakon: lissafi tare da yadudduka masu gauraya, ƙwanƙwasa masu haɗawa, da wuya a duba.) KARFI: "Gina samfurin 3-shekara tare da rabe-raben zato / direba / fitarwa, babu ƙayyadaddun da aka saka a cikin ƙididdiga, haɓaka da ra'ayi na gefe wanda za'a iya canzawa a wuri guda; sannan ƙara tebur mai hankali na girma da kuma duba hadarin rashin daidaituwa a cikin samfurin cyclical. "
Mini Cases
Case 1 - Kudin da aka saka akai-akai. Wani manazarci yana rage gefe daga 78% zuwa 75% a cikin ƙirar AI da aka gina, amma ribar aiki tana canzawa ƙasa da yadda ake tsammani. Lokacin da yake gudanar da saurin sarrafawa, yana ganin cewa tsarin kuɗin yana dogara ne akan 0.22 akai-akai, ba zato ba. Ko da tantanin halitta ya canza, dabarar ta yi amfani da tsohuwar ƙimar. Samfurin yana amsa daidai lokacin da ya dogara akan tsayayyen zato.
Case 2 - Ƙimar ƙima. A cikin tsarin yanke shawara na saka hannun jari, yanayin tushe yana da kyau. Lokacin da manazarci ya gina tebur mai hankali, yana ganin cewa ribar aiki ta ragu da rabi lokacin da girma ya ragu daga 5% zuwa 3%. Don haka dukan roko na samfurin ya dogara ne akan zato na ci gaba guda ɗaya. Wannan wayar da kan jama'a yana canza shawarar daga "tabbatacciyar yes" zuwa "tsattsaye kafin a tabbatar da girma."
Case na 3 - Tarkon hawan keke. A cikin tsarin rance, kuɗin ruwa ya dogara da ma'auni na bashi, ma'auni na bashi ya dogara da bukatun tsabar kudi, kuma buƙatar kuɗi ya dogara da riba. Yayin shigar da AI, ma'anar madauwari tana faruwa kuma Excel yana ba da gargaɗi. Maimakon rufe gargaɗin kuma ya ci gaba, manazarci ya sake nazarin tunani kuma ya karya sarkar don ƙididdige riba akan ma'aunin lokacin da ya gabata. Don haka, sakamakon duka daidai ne kuma ana iya gano shi.
Tsanaki: Samfurin ba zai taɓa barata ta yanayi guda ɗaya wanda yayi kyau ba. Jumlar "Yana da riba sosai a cikin yanayin tushe" ba zai iya zama hujja ga yanke shawara ba tare da sanin abin da ke faruwa a cikin yanayin mummunan yanayi ba. A cikin kowane samfuri, nemi mafi ƙarancin kyakkyawan fata/tushe/ƙasasshen triad da azanci ga mahimmin zato.
Tambayoyi Hudu na Duba Samfurin
Tambayi kowane samfurin AI yana gina waɗannan tambayoyi huɗu:
- Shin akwai gyarawa a ciki? Shin kowace lamba ta dogara ne akan zato ko an saka a cikin dabara?
- Shin raka'o'in sun daidaita? Shin kowane wata da shekara-shekara, TL da dubun TL sun haɗu?
- Akwai ma'anar madauwari? Tantanin halitta yana haɗawa da kansa?
- Shin fitowar ta yi daidai da zato? Lokacin da kuka canza zato, shin abin da ake fitarwa yana canzawa a alkiblar da ake tsammani?
Kuskuren gama gari
- Ba raba zato daga lissafi ba. Lokacin da aka saka ma'auni a cikin dabarar, ƙirar ba za a iya sarrafa shi ba kuma yana amsa ba daidai ba.
- Yanke shawara tare da labari guda ɗaya. Shawarar da aka yanke ba tare da ganin halin da ake ciki ba yana da haɗari.
- Kashe gargaɗin keken keke. Gargadi alama ce ta kuskure, ba haushin yin shiru ba.
- Tsallake hankali. Ba za a iya auna ƙarfin samfurin ba tare da sanin wane zato sakamakon ya dogara da shi ba.
- Rudani na raka'a. Watanni/shekara-shekara da TL/dubun bambance-bambancen TL suna haifar da shiru amma manyan kurakurai.
a takaice
Samfurin kuɗi shine tsarin lissafin kuɗi wanda ke kwatanta makomar gaba tare da zato, kuma ikonsa ya fito ne daga tsabtar yadudduka. Tsarin AI da sauri yana gina al'amura da teburin jin daɗi; amma yana iya gabatar da kurakuran da ba a iya gani kamar sakawa akai-akai, tunani madauwari da rashin daidaituwar naúra. Rarraba zato daga lissafin, ƙara masu fata / tushe / ƙima da hankali ga zato mai mahimmanci ga kowane ƙirar, yi tambayoyin duba guda huɗu a lokaci guda. Kyakkyawan labari guda ɗaya ba zai iya tabbatar da yanke shawara ba.
Aikin aikace-aikace
Shin AI ta gina samfurin riba mai sauƙi na shekaru 3 zuwa kashi uku (zato/direba/fitarwa) kuma a nemi ba a saka a cikin tsarin ba. Ƙara yanayi uku masu kyakkyawan fata/ asali/masu ƙima kuma sanya sabuwar ribar aiki gefe da gefe. Sannan nemi tebur mai hankali don zato mafi mahimmanci (misali girma). A ƙarshe, gudanar da saurin bincika samfurin kuma bincika madaidaicin madaukai, nassoshi na cyclic, da rashin daidaituwa na naúrar kuma lura da binciken.
jerin abubuwan dubawa
- [ ] Na raba zato, direba da matakan fitarwa.
- [ ] Na tabbatar da cewa babu madaidaicin da aka saka a cikin tsarin.
- [ ] Na kafa aƙalla yanayi uku masu kyakkyawan fata/wasu/zamani.
- [ ] Na ƙara tebur mai hankali don zato mai mahimmanci.
- [ ] Na duba don bayanin madauwari.
- [ ] Na tabbatar da daidaiton naúrar ( kowane wata/shekara, TL/dubu TL).
- [ ] Na canza zato kuma na gwada cewa abin da aka fitar ya amsa daidai.